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As election time in the United States and Israel draws nearer, the public discourse regarding the "Iranian nuclear threat" is intensifying. Both candidates vying for the U.S. presidency, and a few who would like to win the Israeli prime ministership, have been portraying Iran as a live bomb and an immediate threat to world peace. Indeed, Iran is not a paragon of virtue. Its aspirations exceed by far those that were described in the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which turned around a previous assessment from 2005.
Iran is a regional player which undoubtedly aspires to leave its mark beyond the realms of the Middle East. It wishes to take the Arab world and Islam through a process of "Shiitization" (namely, pushing away the Sunnis and turning the Shiites to the main and ruling stream of Islam). The president of Iran embraced an unrestrained rhetoric, backed by intensive activity of enriching uranium -- an activity that may allow, by the beginning of the next decade, the production of fissile material for nuclear bombs.
Longing for the days of the Persian Empire, Iran is currently trying to develop long-term ballistic missiles, capable of launching nuclear weapons. These activities reveal that Iran's intentions exceed the evaluation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which appeared on its much-awaited report of Iran monitoring activities. The report was sent to the IAEA members on Feb. 22.
Why does Iran invest resources and efforts to develop nuclear capability? Why does the Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Iran's 'Supreme Leader,' who is the head of the political system, and holds the superior power in the state and determines its internal and external policy -- joined by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- both, together and separately, not without many controversies, spare no effort to appear as the world's "bad boys" and resemble the warmongers of the area, defined as the axis of evil?
I have served in Iran, and dealt a lot with the "Iranian case" for years. I remained in Iran during the last days of the regime of Shapur Bakhtiar, who replaced Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi -- even staying a few days after Khomeini's return from exile. I witnessed people's excitement and relief and the country's transition from a pro-Western monarchy to a theocratic Islamic republic.
Besides the cheers of the crowd, who hoped for relief from the burden of an old oppressing regime, the longing of ministers and generals for guidance and advice from Washington was striking -- "Please tell us what to do after the shah has gone," asked some.
However, U.S. President Jimmy Carter's administration turned its back on them. It was a hard blow to many in Iran, for whom the revolution wasn't a heart's desire, and perceived it as a process that went out of control.
During the greater part of my service one of my principal responsibilities was relations and cooperation with friendly intelligence services. This included meetings and dialogues with Arab and Middle-Eastern leaders. I have learned a lot from these leaders -- at times, more about us than about our enemies. I realized how much their relations with us are considered by them as a sense of security -- for them personally, as well as for the stability of their regimes, assuming this is our interest as well.
Shiite Iran doesn't present a threat only to Israel. Iran applies threats as a way of uniting its different internal groups, and as a simple method of recruiting the masses. Iran threatens the stability of the regimes in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, as well as that of the Gulf sheikdoms. Iran is not part of the Arab world and the Arabs do not conceive it as a partner who shares their interests. Iran doesn't have any regional allies, besides Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza. An of course Syria -- that vacillates between both sides.
The Iran-Iraq war is merely one example of a historical clash between Iran and an Arab country. (In fact Khomeini, when he took over, stopped the development of the nuclear capability saying, "it is not God's creation." The Iraq-Iran war made the Iranians change their minds.
Iran fears Israel much more than Israel fears Iran. In the eyes of Iran, as well as the Arab countries, Israel is most powerful force in the Middle East, politically and militarily. The Iranians strive for attention, and almost overtly claim: "Restrain us, lest we obtain nuclear capability." The United States, as well as Israel, for its own reasons, once again turned their backs on Tehran. Since the "Beirut Declaration" of March 2002, we have not been open and ready for real negotiations. (The Beirut Declaration, initially a Saudi peace initiative, was adopted by the Arab League in 2007).
Last month an interreligious meeting between representatives of Islam, Christianity and Judaism was held in Madrid. The convention was initiated by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.
More than six years after Saudi Arabia's presentation of a far-reaching peace initiative, which included recognition of Israel in its 1967 borders, a proposition approved by the Arab League, and nearly six year after U.S. President George W. Bush included this proposal in the road map -- Saudi Arabia once again took the initiative. This time taking the lead in the religious domain.
The meeting in Madrid didn't gain much attention in the West due to our preoccupation with striping our political leadership, and bringing the captives back home.
A window of opportunity is currently open -- perhaps wider than in the past, due to the anxiety of the Arab countries for their stability in the face of extremist Shiite threat. The Arab countries fear Iran, and in turn Iran fears Israel. Instead of frightening Iran and the Arab countries even further, we have to recognize the common interests.
Guns and missiles are not the only source of security. Negotiations offer security too. Maybe it is time to temper the intense rhetoric regarding Iran's nuclear activity.
We would be better off if we were to support the Saudi initiative -- to embrace not only the moderate Arab countries, but also to combine international security interests with religious ones -- perhaps by holding a religious convention in Jerusalem, as a follow-up to the Madrid Convention: "The Religion and Peace." "For out of Jerusalem shall go forth the law! "
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Nachik Navoth is the former deputy head of Mossad, Israel's external intelligence agency
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