Posts
Israel banging (U.S.) war drums
By MEL FRYKBERG (Middle East Times )
Published: May 20, 2008
U.S. President George W. Bush rides an Israeli-made bicycle presented to him by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on May 15. Bush was on a three-day visit to Israel to mark and celebrate the 60th anniversary of the country's foundation. (Balkis Press/ABACAPRESS.COM via Newscom)
JERUSALEM -- During the visit of U.S. President George W. Bush to Israel last week, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ensured that the Iranian nuclear dossier would be one of the main items on the discussion agenda. The prime minister urged Bush that further action was necessary to thwart what Israel and many in the West perceive as a rising threat to their national security: Iran's nuclear program.
According to a spokesman for Olmert, both countries agreed on the need for "tangible action" to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
"We are on the same page. We both see the threat.... And we both understand that tangible action is required to prevent the Iranians from moving forward on a nuclear weapon," Olmert spokesman Mark Regev told the Israeli daily Ha'aretz.
Regev described diplomatic efforts so far to exert pressure on Iran as "positive," but added, "It is clearly not sufficient and it's clear that additional steps will have to be taken."
Asked about the option of using military force, Regev said: "Leaders of many countries have talked about many options being on the table and, of course, Israel agrees with that."
Following the discussions and the mutual conclusions reached between Israeli officials and Bush, the officials expressed their full satisfaction with the talks saying that Bush had asserted that his statements on the subject would be backed in practice.
The Israelis had presented Bush with what they claim is "evidence", in the form of data, of an existential threat that Iran poses to the Jewish state. They hope that this will strongly influence the U.S. administration on Bush's return after he promised to discuss the issue with security officials.
This had followed talks Olmert had had with Bush last year during a visit to the United States where the Israeli premier had expressed concern and disappointment over a National Intelligence Estimate's report by U.S. intelligence which had stated that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program.
Award winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersch first disclosed details of U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley misleading reporters by stating that Bush had first been briefed on the intelligence report on Nov. 28 last year.
In fact, Bush had known about the report's assessment at least two days earlier when he had discussed it in private with Olmert, according to Hersch.
This has led some commentators to comment that Israel and the United States are in cahoots with regard to setting the stage for a possible military strike on Iran by building an atmosphere which would justify such a strike.
However, several political analysts interviewed for this report told the Middle East Times that they do not believe Iran poses an existential threat to either Israel or the United States. They added that there are diplomatic means at the disposal of the two countries which would weaken Iran's influence and those of its proxies in the region.
These proxies: Syria, Hezbollah – and Hamas which has received both financial and military support from Iran – are regarded as a major threat by Israel.
Moshe Ma'oz an Israeli professor emeritus of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and senior fellow at the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace, said he doubted very much that Iran would attack first and would only counterattack if hit first.
"Furthermore, Iran could use blocking the Straits of Hormuz, thereby threatening the West's supply of oil, as leverage without having to resort to nuclear weapons as a first resort as this would ensure mutual destruction," Ma'oz told the Middle East Times.
He also explained that there was some justification for Iran's nuclear program after the unprovoked attack by Iraq in the 1980s. There is also Iran's legitimate fear of an attack by the United States, especially in light of the invasion of Iraq on false pretexts of weapons of mass destruction.
The key to a diplomatic breakthrough is weakening Iran's influence through its proxies in the region, Syria and Hezbollah. Syria's ties to the Shia crescent of Iran and Hezbollah could be broken if there was serious intervention by Washington in regard to pressuring Israel to return the Golan Heights.
"Syria uses this alliance to strengthen its hand politically against the regional hegemony of a Sunni leadership comprising Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the Gulf states, as well as a way of pressuring Israel to return annexed land," explained Mo'az.
He added that weakening this crescent was possible, as the countries of the crescent had common interests; but also significant differences based on national interests, as opposed to the establishment of a new Islamic caliphate.
Samir Awad, the chairman of the Faculty of Law & Public Administration at Birzeit University's Political Science Department on the West Bank, concurred, and told the Middle East Times that weakening the crescent would also involve Israel establishing quiet on its northern borders by reaching a deal with Hezbollah.
This would include a comprehensive prisoner swap and the return of the Shebaa farms, as Israelis have no religious or ideological ties to Lebanon, Awad explained.
But the danger remains in the U.S. administration being more interested in the Sunni alliance exerting pressure on Syria than coaxing the latter away from the Shia crescent, Awad said.
And as the United States appears disinterested in exerting real pressure on Israel to return Syrian land, cease settlement building and land expropriation in the West Bank, or to discuss the right of return of Palestinian refugees and East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state, Hamas continues to grow stronger.
Simultaneously, while both Israel and the United States continue to up the ante and rhetoric against Iran, the banging of war drums grows louder.
No comments:
Post a Comment